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Extra info for A Financial Crisis Manual: Reflections and the Road Ahead
The risk is that the euro area has in some ways learnt the wrong lessons and it is overemphasizing external demand as a growth driver capable of offsetting its increasingly atrophic internal demand. This however is unlikely to be so, given a global context that is itself rebalancing away from external deficits and overheated domestic economies. Therefore, the true lesson for Europe is to try to nurture not only the supply, but also the demand side of its economy. Excessive (or indeed barely any) external surpluses are neither sustainable nor desired: the patient would simply die from the effort.
The domestic adjustment back to more sustainable levels of activity for emerging markets as well as the high indebtedness/low nominal GDP growth nexus in the developed world have meant an almost universal effort to reign in twin deficits wherever in the world they existed. As a result, the world is now lacking an obvious consumer of last resort, 18 Inachos Lazos while to some extent the global economy is suffering from a “paradox of thrift” of sorts. In Europe, the monetary union effectively underwent an internal balance of payment crisis and it was probably inevitable that the south had to shut its external deficits in relatively short order.
This may persist for a while, particularly given the ECB’s still timid quantitative easing program now under way. , nominal GDP growth), causing renewed sell off of risk assets and forcing policy makers to Causes, Effects and Prospects of the Great Recession 21 undertake further monetary and fiscal action. This is because the overall framework in Europe, both in its conception as well as its implementation, remains lopsided and unlikely to support a long-cycle GDP expansion: the main European economies still appear entrapped in a path of chronic underinvestment.